Russian capitalism at a glance

What does a West London football club have to do with a 13,1 billion $ sale of a Russian oil stake ? Essentially not much but the two still share a common denominator; Mr. Roman Abramovich. Although he has spent the last 2 years in London nurturing his pet investment Chelsea Football Club (CFC) buying the club to glory he has kept his Russian ties strong through a 72.7% stake in the Russian oil company Sibneft and a governor post in the desolate but oil/gas abundant Siberian region Chukotka (geographical link). Now it seems that Ambramovich's capitalistic endeavors in Russian business is drwaing to a close as he offloads his Sibneft stake to the gas-giant Gazprom essentially making it a stateowned behemoth - see article from the Economist here (walled for nonsubscribers) and article from Herald Tribune here. This deal shows two things in my opinion ...

1. After the ex-boss of Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky's imprisonment and the subsequent state freeze of all his assets the remaining oligarchs are beginning to worry about the powers wielded by Kremlin. Khodorkovsky's fall from grace is taken in as a lesson to remember and Abramovich's sale of Sibneft to a statecontrolled enterprise is mirrored in this; better leave sooner than later and keeping Putin happy in the process. The Economist article implicitly suggests that Abramovich is colluding with Putin but no evidence for this is clear.

2. The second thing which is far more important than the manoeverings of a football club owning oligarch is the Sibneft deal's remifications on the openess and reputation of the Russian economy. After the deal the Kremlin can add the ownership of one third of the oil industry to its portfolio alongside its monopoly on most pipelines. This is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion and a fortified state grip of the energy sector will not do the Russian economy any good.

As always comments are welcome ... 

Wonders of the new -podcasting- economy

Internet based services and companies can if managed rightly be tremendously profitable. The next new thing seems to be podcasting which is a way to provide audio files (radio shows, lectures etc) which can be downloaded to a MP3 device; e.g. an Ipod. Podcasting as a phenonomen operates in the same sphere of blogs and vlogs but it seems that the possiblity for raising revenues is more vigorously pursued in terms of podcasting. see article from Wired magazine here. The revenues are primarily raised through offering advertising space, and if you are running a podcasting service with a large audience the only thing you need to do is to explain to your sponsor what podcasting is and then wait for the call from American Express offering you the black card of no credit limit wonder ... The race is on!

Is the bear taking the wheel ?

Economics is a weird discipline practiced by many but mastered by few. In the post war era the convictions were firmly grounded on the general theory authored by in 1936 John Maynard Keynes. The economy was to be kept in check through demand side management with an active government employing fiscal policy to keep the economy from overheating and recessing. In almost thirty years the Keynesian paradigm ruled as the economic mindset of particularly European governments.

In the 1970’s all this came abruptly to the end. Two oil crises in 1973 and 1979 made economists and politicians aware of the supply side of economics. With the devastating effects of stagflation theoretically impossible at the time following the traditional Phillips curve a new economic paradigm, originated from the Chicago School of Economics, began its reign headed by Milton Friedman with central bank inflation bashing, low government involvement, and supply side economics.

Today it is commonly recognized that both demand and supply side politics go hand in hand in the pursuit of a balanced economy. However, any undergraduate economics student knows the tale cited above and the horrible days of stagflation serve as a nightmare to remember.

How does the above fit in with the world economy of today?

In the recent months the discourse of economists has been one of astonishing with a touch of slight concern. The main driver of discussion has been the interest rates and subsequent low bond yields. How have we been able to keep interest rates so low for so long without inflationary pressures? The Economist answered the question by reviving the venerable Keynesian IS/LM model hailing the age of zero inflation due to the exportation of cheap consumer goods from China and India – you can also read this recent survey from the Economist for a presentation of the “shift in thrift” which is supposed to have caused an unbalance between savings and investments in part yielding the low interest rates with the United States as the main driver of world demand.

However, It seems now that inflation is beginning to catch up (see this article) and central bankers are facing a difficult task. In the wake of Rita and Katrina oil prices have increased sharply from an already elevated level and the situation is slowly beginning to resemble a serious supply chock; see article from the Economist here. I also highly recommend Mark Thoma’s blog which has dealt extensively with the state of the world economy in the past week and in particular this article. This is a wonderful place where evy-league scholars are an abundant ressource

Perhaps economists should begin to evoke old spook stories to avoid history to repeat itself?