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Tuesday
Jan132015

Too Many Cheerleaders?

After doing away with the extremes in my recent post, and advocating a continuing constructive market stance based on country and sector rotation, I thought that I needed to put a face on the anti-thesis of Hussman whom I, perhaps unfairly, stung a little bit. You will not find a more hardened advocate for the bull market than Jeffries' David Zervos and his (in)famous Spoos and Blues call, recently re-wamped into a Spoos and Qs variant. In one of his latest missive, he notes; 

With all that said, I feel just fine about our Spoos and Q’s call for 2014. Adding that to the trophy shelf with Spoos and Chartreuse, Spoos and Blues, Spoos and Duu's and Spoos and 2s feels pretty sweet! So, let's move on to 2015? Is it still a Spoos and Q’s world? Maybe, but there are probably better trades for this year. I suspect we have to pass the QE playbook, and the “No Hater” hats over to Europe. I outlined this idea back on 5-Dec-2014 in a commentary entitled BTDD. Here, once again, is the logic behind moving from a Spoos and Q’s world to what I would like to think of for 2015 as a "Dax and Dollars" world. 

Is this what is called resting on one's laurels? The notable difference between Zervos and the bears, though, is that the former has been right for so long that even a cynic like me would afford him a victory lap. But could it really be that easy, forever? 

Equities have been trading on a background of persistently higher volatility. This is consistent with uncertainty surrounding the timing and nature of Fed policy this year as well as the collapse in global energy and commodity prices. On the latter, it seems to me that we are balanced on a knife's edge between Albert Edward's version of the world where deflation crushes all things risk asset related, and a world in which the huge tax cut to consumers and non-energy producers, and the associated delay of rate hikes, sends the market into the stratosphere. Having recently alienated myself from extremes, I still think that the S&P 500 can do absolutely nothing for a year, even as other markets offer significant opportunities, but it will be a bumpy ride. 

Using my own private random news generator, however, the report (in Danish!) that retail investors in Denmark are warming to the stock market in record fashion, as well as the increasing fondness of Chinese retail investors for "penny stocks" indicate that the stock market euphoria is starting to spread. The market needs cheerleaders to move forward, but too of a good thing is just that. 

Portfolio notes:

One step forward, and one-and-a-half step back is pretty much the state of play at the moment. The key positions are doing alright, and earnings have been kind for now, but performance is underwhelming and risk is starting to feel too high for the reward. We still intend to build long-term EM positions further in coming months, but also plan to add to the gold allocation. 

 

Tuesday
Jan062015

Middle of the Road

I stopped reading Hussman regularly about a year ago. His pieces are not conducive for a good night's sleep—a a statement which may come back to haunt me—but mostly, just because he has been wrong for so long that I simply lost interest [1]. His latest article, however, is worth reading in its entirety because it is one of the few pieces I have read in a while that excellently captures the frame of mind of investors at the moment. 

I will let John speak for himself; 

Several years of persistent yield-seeking speculation provoked by zero-interest rate monetary policies have created a fertile ground for cognitive dissonance. On one hand, any observer with historical perspective knows not only that the overvaluation from this kind of speculation inevitably ends in tears, but also that the heavy issuance of new speculative and low-quality securities during the bubble finances and enables unproductive malinvestment that leaves the economy far worse off in the end. We should recognize that this same narrative was observed in the late-1920’s bubble-crash, in the tech bubble-crash, in the housing bubble-crash, and will be remembered painfully, but in hindsight, as the QE bubble-crash. On the other hand, prices have been advancing.

Presumably, Mr. Hussman is talking about U.S. equities here since I can certainly come up with a number of markets where prices have not been advancing. And herein also lies the rub. In the current investment enviroment, there seems to be only two options. If you are in the upbeat corner, you believe in the trend and that Spoos will recover swiftly from every 5% correction and you act accordingly (probably with a nice dollop of leverage). The alternative is the seventh ring of hell, where a catastrophic 50-70% drawdown lurks just around the corner. The ability to say "I f*cking told you so" and the prospect of the warm fuzzy feeling of being able to deploy cash at firesale valuations outweigh the short-term pain of being short, in cash, or long vol since 2011 in what has, arguably, been one of the most steady and strong bull markets ever in U.S. equities.

My problem is that I don't like either, and I wonder whether both could be wrong. Consider for example a scenario in which the S&P 500 trades sideways this (with volatility), but equities in down-trodden Chile, Brazil, Eurozone bank sector, energy (etc) offer outperformance, or even, decent absolute returns. I think we have to, at least, entertain the notion that when it comes to the current investment environment, sector and country rotation represent the "X" that marks the destination for outperformance. Sometimes, the middle of the road is not such a bad place [2].

Portfolio notes: 

Not much to report. It has been an altogether volatile start to the year with the biggest position (KGF) seeing a rather unpleasant retracement after having some real legs into the end of last year. We remain convinced, however, that it can push higher in the first quarter. Elsewhere, the gold and US treasury position are providing a little bit of relief, and the upbeat earnings release from RSW was also a positive surprise. In the long-term part of the portfolio, we have exploited recent weakness to open up a position in Malaysian equities. We expect to do the same with Brazil and Chile towards the end of February. Cash balances remain about 20%, and the poor start to the year for risk assets is not enough for us to up this ratio ... for now! 

--

[1] - The flipside here is of course that Hussman is one of the few investors out there who sticks religiously to his framework, and for that he has my unwavering respect. But for the average investor (professional or retail) following his advice has been extremely costly (no matter what happens next). 

[2] - Polemic appears to have the same story; I agree completely with this narrative. If you haven't bookmarked this blog, by the way go do it.