IMF World Economic Outlook 2009
Thursday, April 16, 2009 at 08:07PM It is out (hat tip: Econbrowser) or at least chapters 3 and 4 are whereas ch. 1 and 2 won't be available until the 22nd of April. The main page can be found here, where there are also links to webcasts where senior staff economists at the IMF provide an overview of the content. As for the already released chapters; here are the key points from the summaries.
Chapter 3 - From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong? (full text PDF)
Recessions associated with financial crises tend to be severe. Recoveries from such recessions are typically slow. If such recessions are globally synchronized then they tend to last even longer and be followed by recoveries that are even weaker
Countercyclical policies can be helpful in ending recessions and strengthening recoveries. In particular, expansionary fiscal policies seem particularly effective. Monetary policy can help shorten such recessions, but is less effective than usual.
These findings suggest that the current recession is likely to be unusually long and severe, and the recovery sluggish. However, strong countercyclical policy action, combined with action to restore confidence in the financial sector, could improve prospects for recovery.
Chapter 4 -How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies? (full text PDF)
Financial crises in advanced economies have passed through strongly and rapidly to emerging economies, with financial linkages a key channel of transmission.
The decline in capital flows to emerging economies following a crisis may be protracted, given the solvency problems facing advanced economy banks who provide significant financing to emerging economies.
A coordinated policy response by advanced and emerging economies is required, since reducing individual country vulnerabilities alone cannot insulate emerging economies from a major financial shock in advanced economies.
Needless to, this is bound to be well worth a look and I hope to have something to say at some point, and if not someone most definitely will.