The Impossibility of Accurate Macro-Economic Forecasting
Posted on Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:12PM
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CV
in Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Forecasting
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CV
in Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Forecasting
|
Post a Comment
Paul Ormerod (1997) - The Impossibility of Accurate Macro-Economic Forecasting, Economic Affairs Volume 17 Issue 1 Page 44-49, March 1997
The macro-economic short-term forecasting record in the West over the past thirty years is very poor. Modern non-linear signal processing techniques can be used to show that such inaccuracy is a deep and inherent property of the data themselves. The forecasting record simply cannot be improved. Much economic policy still focuses on short-term intervention based on short-term forecasts. But such efforts are futile because forecasts of sufficient accuracy over time cannot be made.
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