Vistesen, Claus (2009) - Ageing and Export Dependency, Working Paper 02-09

[I am presenting this paper on a seminar in Barcelona the 14th of October]

The primary manifestation of the demographic transition in a modern economic context is through ageing and the primary transmission from ageing to the macro economy is through its effect on saving and investment behavior. These two effects taken together suggest a strong impact from the continuing process of ageing on international capital flows and global macroeconomic imbalances. This paper explores the potential relationship between ageing on a macroeconomic level and the reliance, or outright dependency, on exports and foreign asset income to achieve economic growth. The paper’s argument is both theoretical and empirical. Using a standard overlapping generation framework (OLG) in an open economy context this paper discusses whether the proposed relationship between a transition into old age and dissaving is feasible and desirable (or even optimal?). Finally, an empirical analysis is presented on Germany and Japan to show how these two economies, as the oldest in the world, may exactly be in a state of export dependency.

Vistesen, Claus (2009) - The ECB's Balance Sheet at a Glance, Quantitative Easing à la ECB - Now You See Me, Now You Don't, Working Paper 01-09

Executive Summary
 

Is the ECB deploying a variant of Quantitative Easing in any fashion, way, shape or form?

If you are talking about Quantitative Easing senso strictu then my answer has to be a simple and straightforward no. However, if we stop being quite so by the letter of the book, and broaden our definition slightly, then I would strongly suggest that the battery of credit enhancing measures put in place by the ECB when taken together with
the steady increase in securities accepted onto the balance sheet as collateral, do make it evident that the ECB - whether wittingly or unwittingly - has moved into some form of what we could at least call "quasi" Quantitative Easing.

Is the ECB indirectly monetizing the debt issuance of Eurozone governments?

If my initial answer to this question - before actually going through the books - would have been an outright yes, I now feel the need to tread much more carefully on this point, since I have most definitely not been able to conjure up that proverbial smoking gun. In fact, it has proved very difficult to establish any kind of direct link between the amount of funding drawn from the ECB refinancing operations and the purchase of government bonds by the MFIs at the national level.

This is not to say, however, that circumstantial evidence is not available that this process is taking place to some extent, and in some countries. I do believe, for example, that the massive purchase by Spanish MFIs of government bonds in that country does offer prima facie evidence that some such connection may well exist, and thus all I can say at this point is that further research is called for, and especially a much more detailed and discriminating data-mining dig-down. 

What are the prospects and possibilities for a viable exit strategy for the ECB from its non-standard monetary policy measures?

The measures collectively known as Enhanced Credit Support are by their very nature flexible. However, if there is anything we have learnt from the operation of monetary policy in Japan over the last twenty years it is that premature exit from the sort of substantial support the ECB is offering only makes matters worse, and in addition
this kind of massive liquidity easing is a lot easier to get into than it is to get out of.

A true economic recovery will inevitably be somewhat selective, and it is at this point that the ECB's problems will really start, since the recovery will begin in some countries and not in others. To take the extreme case: it will be awfully hard to maintain massive monetary easing for a Spanish economy which remains stuck in an "L" shaped non-recovery if in France headline GDP growth were to start to tick back again  towards - say - 2%. Then the real dilemmas which face the ECB will begin in earnest. As such, it is going to be much more difficult for the ECB to instigate that dearly beloved exit strategy than many currently like to believe.

[Note: this paper is a new, and hopefully better, version of my earlier paper on the same topic.]

Vistesen, Claus (2009) - Carry Trade Fundamentals and the Financial Crisis 2007-2010, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, vol. IV issue 2(8)

This paper takes the form of an event study surrounding the current financial crisis. It proposes a theoretical relationship which can be used to model traditional carry trade crosses on a daily return basis as a negative function of equity returns and a positive function of market volatility. In order to test this theory, an Arbitrage Pricing Theory framework is adopted which is used to estimate the factor betas of carry trade crosses with respect to equity returns and market volatility. It is shown how the variation in the currency crosses explained by the functional relationship as well as the estimated factor betas have increased significantly in relation to the financial crisis. The results indicate that low yielding currencies (the JPY and CHF) can be successfully modeled as a negative function of equity returns and a positive function of volatility in the market. The results furthermore underpin studies that have shown how carry trading activity is highly sensitive towards sudden sparks of volatility and risk aversion, and thus how carry trade fundamentals are time varying.

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